A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
